Derby 2-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 9 as Derby welcome QPR to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 9W 0D 1L at Pride Park Stadium — 2.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
QPR — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derby at 1.50 PPG versus QPR's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Derby, 2 for QPR and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
QPR trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 44% versus QPR 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 54% | QPR 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.36 xG and QPR 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.991 / defence 1.080 | QPR attack 0.994 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.001. Data: 8 Derby games / 54 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 43% | Draw 27% | QPR 29%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | QPR 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 20% | QPR 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 43% | Draw 27% | QPR 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Derby 1.36 / QPR 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.991 / def 1.080 | QPR attack 0.994 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Derby (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.07
QPR xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs QPR kick off?
Derby vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs QPR?
Derby 2 - 0 QPR.
Where is Derby vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs QPR part of?
Derby vs QPR is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 43% chance of winning, QPR a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Derby and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and QPR?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | QPR 2W.
What form are Derby and QPR in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. QPR (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.66
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Derby xG
Total xG
2.44
1.07
QPR xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Derby and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Derby and 1.07 for QPR, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 31W 8D 15L from 54 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 23L across 54 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over QPR heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 18W 4D 5L from 27 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.04 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and QPR in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 31W 8D 15L in their last 54 games (1.87 PPG), while QPR have gone 16W 15D 23L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or QPR away?
Derby's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.15 PPG; QPR away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Derby or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, QPR in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2025, when QPR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting QPR specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and QPR?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, QPR have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when QPR 2-3 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
QPR see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 48%, QPR 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Derby) and 41% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; QPR in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Derby's recent matches and 44% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Derby's recent games and 41% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and QPR tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, QPR in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat QPR 2-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.36 xG and QPR 1.07 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. QPR landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against QPR attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 8/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 43% | Draw 27% | QPR 29%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 54%, QPR 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.