Derby 3-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Bournemouth meet at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 2W 5D 1L at Pride Park Stadium — 1.38 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bournemouth have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 0L across 8 road games this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.12 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 8 games (88%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Bournemouth arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 53% versus Bournemouth 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 29% | Bournemouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.59 xG and Bournemouth 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.845 / defence 1.109 | Bournemouth attack 0.904 / defence 0.650. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.098. Bournemouth's defence strength of 0.650 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 17 Derby games / 17 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 18% | Draw 35% | Bournemouth 46%. Fair-value odds: Derby 5.56 | Draw 2.86 | Bournemouth 2.17. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Derby's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 62% | Bournemouth 12% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 18% | Draw 35% | Bournemouth 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Derby 0.59 / Bournemouth 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.845 / def 1.109 | Bournemouth attack 0.904 / def 0.650 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Bournemouth xG
31%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Bournemouth kick off?
Derby vs Bournemouth kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Bournemouth?
Derby 3 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Derby vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Bournemouth part of?
Derby vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 18% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 46% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Derby and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Bournemouth in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.84) and Bournemouth's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (0.90x) against Derby's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (18.8%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
18%
5.51
35%
2.83
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Derby xG
Total xG
1.69
1.10
Bournemouth xG
5.51
18%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.22
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
56%
1.80
Win to Nil
6%
16.56
26%
3.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 20.3 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Derby and 1.10 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 9D 5L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bournemouth sit at 2.35 PPG from 17 outings (12W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of Derby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 2W 5D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Bournemouth have taken 2.50 points per game from 8 outings (6W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.82 scored and 0.59 conceded. Bournemouth's attacking output running into Derby's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Bournemouth in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 3W 9D 5L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 12W 4D 1L in their last 17 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Bournemouth away?
Bournemouth's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.38 PPG; Bournemouth away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Derby or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Derby
0
Draws
1
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Bournemouth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Bournemouth 2-0 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 62%, Bournemouth 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Derby and 12% for Bournemouth.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bournemouth in 88%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Derby's recent matches and 12% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Derby's recent games and 12% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Bournemouth 3-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.59 xG and Bournemouth 1.10 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bournemouth outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Bournemouth attack 0.90 / defence 0.65, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 18% | Draw 35% | Bournemouth 46%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Derby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 29%, Bournemouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.