Derby 3-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Blackburn meet at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Derby's home record at Pride Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Blackburn have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Championship this season, Blackburn have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Derby's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Blackburn's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Derby, 3 for Blackburn and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Derby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (80 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Blackburn half-time and goal-timing data (80 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 55% versus Blackburn 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Blackburn 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.21 xG and Blackburn 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.913 / defence 1.014 | Blackburn attack 0.837 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.190. Data: 80 Derby games / 80 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 39% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 29%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Blackburn 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Derby 80% | Blackburn 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 39% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Derby 1.21 / Blackburn 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.913 / def 1.014 | Blackburn attack 0.837 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Derby (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Blackburn xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Blackburn kick off?
Derby vs Blackburn kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Blackburn?
Derby 3 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Derby vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Blackburn part of?
Derby vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 39% chance of winning, Blackburn a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Derby and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Blackburn?
Record (5 meetings): Derby 2W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 3W.
What form are Derby and Blackburn in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Blackburn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.91) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.84x) against Derby's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 80/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
39%
2.57
32%
3.11
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Derby xG
Total xG
2.22
1.01
Blackburn xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Derby and 1.01 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 80 outings, Derby have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 26W 20D 34L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Blackburn's form line: 29W 17D 34L from 80 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Derby against 1.30 for Blackburn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.28 PPG from 39 outings (13W 11D 15L).
On the road, Blackburn have gone 13W 8D 18L from 39 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.06 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 80 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 26W 20D 34L in their last 80 games (1.23 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 29W 17D 34L in their last 80 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Blackburn away?
Derby's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.28 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Derby or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Blackburn in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Derby have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Blackburn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
3
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Blackburn?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Blackburn have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Derby 3-1 Blackburn.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 49%, Blackburn 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Derby) and 38% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Blackburn in 33%; Derby have failed to score in 26% of games; Blackburn in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Derby's recent matches and 36% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Derby's recent games and 38% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Blackburn tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Blackburn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Blackburn 3-1 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.21 xG and Blackburn 1.01 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Blackburn attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 39% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 29%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Blackburn 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.23 PPG, Blackburn 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.