Coventry 1-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coventry at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coventry face QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coventry and QPR meet at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Championship (matchday 46). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Coventry (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Coventry's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
QPR have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, QPR have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Coventry against 1.50 for QPR. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Coventry edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Coventry 3–1 QPR — a Coventry win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Coventry half-time and goal-timing data (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 50% versus QPR 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 46% | QPR 47%). Note also that QPR surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Coventry recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.30 xG and QPR 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.125 / defence 1.198 | QPR attack 0.761 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.156. QPR's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Coventry's last 91 games and QPR's last 91.
Result probabilities: Coventry 42% | Draw 28% | QPR 30%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.37 | Draw 3.61 | QPR 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coventry at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coventry if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Coventry 80% (last 10 home games) | QPR 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 46 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 42% | Draw 28% | QPR 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Coventry 1.30 / QPR 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.125 / def 1.198 | QPR attack 0.761 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Coventry (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
1.05
QPR xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coventry vs QPR FAQs
What time does Coventry vs QPR kick off?
Coventry vs QPR kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs QPR?
Coventry 1 - 2 QPR.
Where is Coventry vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs QPR part of?
Coventry vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 42% chance of winning, QPR a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Coventry and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Coventry vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coventry's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.76x) against Coventry's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Coventry's last 91 games and QPR's last 91 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.61
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.36
1.05
QPR xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coventry vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Coventry and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Coventry and 1.05 for QPR, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coventry come into this having played 91 games, going 36W 30D 25L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.13 PPG from 91 outings (27W 22D 42L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Coventry against 1.13 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Coventry's home form reads 19W 17D 9L across their last 45 home games, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 45 away games (14W 11D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coventry come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coventry are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.98 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
Coventry (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coventry
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Coventry vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Coventry and QPR in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 36W 30D 25L in their last 91 games (1.52 PPG), while QPR have gone 27W 22D 42L in their last 91 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or QPR away?
Coventry's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.64 PPG; QPR away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Coventry or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, QPR in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coventry won Coventry 7-1 QPR on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coventry have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Coventry
1
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Coventry vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and QPR?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Coventry have won 5, QPR have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Coventry and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: QPR 2-1 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and QPR?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 51%, QPR 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Coventry) and 42% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; QPR in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coventry vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coventry and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Coventry's recent matches and 42% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Coventry and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Coventry's recent games and 42% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Coventry's recent matches and 62% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Coventry 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Coventry 1-2 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.30 xG and QPR 1.05 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. QPR outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against QPR attack 0.76 / defence 0.86, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 42% | Draw 28% | QPR 30%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 46%, QPR 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coventry 1.52 PPG, QPR 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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