Charlton 1-0 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host West Brom at The Valley in Championship, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 4 November 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's home record at The Valley: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
West Brom — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Charlton are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
West Brom in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 44% versus West Brom 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | West Brom 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.33 xG and West Brom 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.025 / defence 0.921 | West Brom attack 0.831 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.164. Data: 13 Charlton games / 59 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 47% | Draw 28% | West Brom 25%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | West Brom 4.00. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | West Brom 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 47% | Draw 28% | West Brom 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Charlton 1.33 / West Brom 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.025 / def 0.921 | West Brom attack 0.831 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Charlton (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.89
West Brom xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs West Brom kick off?
Charlton vs West Brom kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 4 November 2025 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs West Brom?
Charlton 1 - 0 West Brom.
Where is Charlton vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs West Brom part of?
Charlton vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 47% chance of winning, West Brom a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Charlton and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and West Brom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and West Brom in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. West Brom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.02) and West Brom's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.57
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.22
0.89
West Brom xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Charlton and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Charlton and 0.89 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 29W 16D 14L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom's form line: 20W 22D 17L from 59 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.75 PPG, West Brom on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 2.14 PPG from 29 outings (18W 8D 3L).
On the road, West Brom have gone 6W 11D 12L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.17 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and West Brom in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 29W 16D 14L in their last 59 games (1.75 PPG), while West Brom have gone 20W 22D 17L in their last 59 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or West Brom away?
Charlton's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 2.14 PPG; West Brom away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Charlton or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, West Brom in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and West Brom runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Charlton
2
Draws
0
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and West Brom?
From 3 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, West Brom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when West Brom 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and West Brom?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 52%, West Brom 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Charlton) and 41% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; West Brom in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Charlton's games and 62% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Charlton's recent games and 41% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and West Brom tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, West Brom in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out West Brom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat West Brom 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.33 xG and West Brom 0.89 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. West Brom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against West Brom attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 47% | Draw 28% | West Brom 25%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, West Brom 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
West Brom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.75 PPG, West Brom 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.