Cardiff 1-3 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Blackburn make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cardiff have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Blackburn's overall Championship record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Cardiff, 1.10 for Blackburn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Blackburn have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Cardiff's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Blackburn have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Cardiff goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 43% versus Blackburn 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 47% | Blackburn 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.51 xG and Blackburn 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.105 / defence 0.996 | Blackburn attack 0.836 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 0.983. Data: 60 Cardiff games / 60 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 52% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 19%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Blackburn 5.26. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 40% | Blackburn 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 52% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Cardiff 1.51 / Blackburn 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.105 / def 0.996 | Blackburn attack 0.836 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.315 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Blackburn xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Blackburn kick off?
Cardiff vs Blackburn kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Cardiff 1 - 3 Blackburn.
Where is Cardiff vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Blackburn part of?
Cardiff vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 52% chance of winning, Blackburn a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cardiff and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Blackburn?
Record (6 meetings): Cardiff 1W | Draws 1 | Blackburn 4W.
What form are Cardiff and Blackburn in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Blackburn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (1.10) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.84x) against Cardiff's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.52
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.33
0.82
Blackburn xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.82 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cardiff come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 8D 29L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.20 PPG from 60 outings (19W 15D 26L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Cardiff against 1.20 for Blackburn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cardiff's home form reads 14W 3D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.07 points per game from 29 outings (8W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cardiff are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.27 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 23W 8D 29L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 19W 15D 26L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Blackburn away?
Cardiff's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.55 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackburn won 5-1 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Blackburn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cardiff
1
Draws
5
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Blackburn?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Blackburn have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Blackburn 1-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 38%, Blackburn 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Cardiff) and 66% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cardiff have failed to score in 34% of games; Blackburn in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cardiff's recent matches and 45% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cardiff's recent games and 66% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Blackburn tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackburn cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Cardiff 1-3 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.51 xG and Blackburn 0.82 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Blackburn outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Blackburn attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 52% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 19%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Blackburn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 47%, Blackburn 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.28 PPG, Blackburn 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.