Burnley 2-1 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Burnley (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Sheffield Utd.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sheffield Utd make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Championship, Regular Season - 44. The match kicks off on Monday 21 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sheffield Utd (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sheffield Utd's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Burnley's 2.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sheffield Utd's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Burnley have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Sheffield Utd managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Burnley winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Burnley and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sheffield Utd — key trading statistics (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 44% versus Sheffield Utd 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 43% | Sheffield Utd 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.15 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.022 / defence 0.653 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.982 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.005. Burnley's defence rating of 0.653 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Burnley games / 43 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 48% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Utd 21%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Sheffield Utd 4.76. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Sheffield Utd's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 20% | Sheffield Utd 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 48% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Utd 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 32% | xG Burnley 1.15 / Sheffield Utd 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.022 / def 0.653 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.982 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Burnley (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Sheffield Utd xG
32%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Burnley vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 21 April 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Sheffield Utd?
Burnley 2 - 1 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Burnley vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Burnley vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 48% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Burnley and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Sheffield Utd?
Record (5 meetings): Burnley 4W | Draws 0 | Sheffield Utd 1W.
What form are Burnley and Sheffield Utd in?
Burnley (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Burnley's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Utd's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Sheffield Utd's attack (0.98x) against Burnley's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.5%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
48%
2.09
31%
3.18
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.80
0.65
Sheffield Utd xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.1 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Burnley and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Burnley and 0.65 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 81 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 30W 25D 26L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Sheffield Utd's form line: 30W 14D 37L from 81 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Burnley against 1.28 for Sheffield Utd. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.38 PPG from 40 outings (14W 13D 13L).
On the road, Sheffield Utd have gone 13W 7D 20L from 40 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.16 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 30W 25D 26L in their last 81 games (1.42 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 30W 14D 37L in their last 81 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Burnley's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.38 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Burnley or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Burnley have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won 5-0 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Burnley
0
Draws
1
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Sheffield Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 5, Sheffield Utd have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Burnley 2-1 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Sheffield Utd?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 42%, Sheffield Utd 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Burnley) and 48% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 32% of games; Sheffield Utd in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Sheffield Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Burnley's recent matches and 50% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Burnley's recent games and 48% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Sheffield Utd tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sheffield Utd in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Sheffield Utd 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Sheffield Utd 2-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.15 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.65 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.02 / defence 0.65 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.98 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 48% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Utd 21%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 43%, Sheffield Utd 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.42 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.