Burnley 1-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 54%, yet in-form Blackburn provide a compelling counter-argument — this Burnley vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Blackburn at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Blackburn have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Blackburn away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Blackburn are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Burnley have won 2, Blackburn 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Burnley winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Blackburn in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 61% versus Blackburn 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 61% | Blackburn 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 2.02 xG and Blackburn 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.312 / defence 0.976 | Blackburn attack 1.129 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.174. Burnley carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 3 Burnley games / 49 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 54% | Draw 22% | Blackburn 24%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Blackburn 4.17. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Blackburn (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 70% | Blackburn 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 54% | Draw 22% | Blackburn 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Burnley 2.02 / Blackburn 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.312 / def 0.976 | Blackburn attack 1.129 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Burnley (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Blackburn xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Blackburn kick off?
Burnley vs Blackburn kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Blackburn?
Burnley 1 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Burnley vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Blackburn part of?
Burnley vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 54% chance of winning, Blackburn a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Burnley and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Blackburn?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 2W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 0W.
What form are Burnley and Blackburn in?
Burnley (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Blackburn (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
54%
1.86
22%
4.45
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.31
1.29
Blackburn xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
3%
31.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Burnley and 1.29 for Blackburn, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley's recent record stands at 7W 9D 25L from 41 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Blackburn, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 17L across 41 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Blackburn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Blackburn by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 3W 4D 13L from 20 games — 0.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackburn's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.37 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Blackburn
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 7W 9D 25L in their last 41 games (0.73 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Blackburn away?
Blackburn's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.65 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Burnley won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Blackburn?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 3, Blackburn have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2025, when Blackburn 0-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Blackburn?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 55%, Blackburn 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Burnley and 70% for Blackburn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 35% of games; Blackburn in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Burnley's recent matches and 45% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Burnley's matches and 70% of Blackburn's.
Do Burnley and Blackburn tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Blackburn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 4, as Burnley and Blackburn drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 2.02 xG and Blackburn 1.29 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.31 / defence 0.98 against Blackburn attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 3/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 54% | Draw 22% | Blackburn 24%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 61%, Blackburn 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Blackburn arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.