Bristol City 0-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bristol City at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bristol City vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bristol City and QPR meet at Ashton Gate Stadium in Championship (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bristol City have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bristol City have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
QPR (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, QPR have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Bristol City's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of QPR's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Bristol City, 2 for QPR and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Bristol City 0–0 QPR — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Bristol City half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bristol City 54% versus QPR 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bristol City 40% | QPR 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bristol City 1.27 xG and QPR 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bristol City attack 0.986 / defence 0.931 | QPR attack 0.710 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.223. QPR's attack rating of 0.710 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Bristol City's last 78 games and QPR's last 78.
Result probabilities: Bristol City 47% | Draw 29% | QPR 24%. Fair-value odds: Bristol City 2.11 | Draw 3.45 | QPR 4.23. Bristol City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bristol City at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bristol City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bristol City's last 10 home games and QPR's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bristol City 50% (last 10 home games) | QPR 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bristol City vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 33 | Venue: Ashton Gate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bristol City 47% | Draw 29% | QPR 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Bristol City 1.27 / QPR 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bristol City attack 0.986 / def 0.931 | QPR attack 0.710 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Bristol City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Bristol City xG
Expected Goals
0.81
QPR xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bristol City vs QPR FAQs
What time does Bristol City vs QPR kick off?
Bristol City vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Ashton Gate Stadium.
What was the final score in Bristol City vs QPR?
Bristol City 0 - 1 QPR.
Where is Bristol City vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Ashton Gate Stadium.
What competition is Bristol City vs QPR part of?
Bristol City vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bristol City vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Bristol City a 47% chance of winning, QPR a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bristol City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bristol City vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bristol City and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Bristol City vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bristol City's attack rating (0.99) and QPR's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.71x) against Bristol City's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Bristol City's last 78 games and QPR's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol City Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.45
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Bristol City xG
Total xG
2.08
0.81
QPR xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
7%
15.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bristol City vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bristol City vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bristol City and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bristol City and 0.81 for QPR, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bristol City vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bristol City come into this having played 78 games, going 27W 22D 29L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.01 PPG from 78 outings (20W 19D 39L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Bristol City against 1.01 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bristol City's home form reads 16W 10D 13L across their last 39 home games, a 1.49 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 39 away games (11W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bristol City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bristol City are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.94 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bristol City
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
Bristol City (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bristol City
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Bristol City vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Bristol City and QPR in coming into this match?
Bristol City have gone 27W 22D 29L in their last 78 games (1.32 PPG), while QPR have gone 20W 19D 39L in their last 78 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bristol City at home or QPR away?
Bristol City's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bristol City at home: 1.49 PPG; QPR away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bristol City and QPR, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bristol City have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bristol City
4
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Bristol City vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol City and QPR?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bristol City have won 2, QPR have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bristol City and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: QPR 0-0 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Bristol City and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bristol City 54%, QPR 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bristol City) and 44% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Bristol City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; QPR in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bristol City home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bristol City vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bristol City and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bristol City's recent matches and 44% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bristol City and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bristol City's recent games and 44% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bristol City and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Bristol City's recent matches and 64% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Bristol City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Bristol City 0-1 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.27 xG and QPR 0.81 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bristol City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against QPR attack 0.71 / defence 0.91, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bristol City 47% | Draw 29% | QPR 24%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a QPR win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 40%, QPR 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bristol City's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.32 PPG, QPR 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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