Bristol City 1-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Burnley at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bristol City vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to Ashton Gate to face Bristol City in Championship, Regular Season - 45. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Bristol City (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bristol City have posted 5W 4D 1L at Ashton Gate — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bristol City are significantly better at Ashton Gate than their overall form suggests.
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Championship this season, Burnley have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Burnley are 0.70 PPG clear of Bristol City in recent Championship fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bristol City 0W, Burnley 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bristol City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bristol City 60% versus Burnley 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bristol City 50% | Burnley 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bristol City 0.95 xG and Burnley 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bristol City attack 1.010 / defence 0.979 | Burnley attack 1.164 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.110. Burnley's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 90 Bristol City games / 44 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bristol City 27% | Draw 30% | Burnley 43%. Fair-value odds: Bristol City 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Burnley 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bristol City 60% | Burnley 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bristol City vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Ashton Gate • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bristol City 27% | Draw 30% | Burnley 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Bristol City 0.95 / Burnley 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bristol City attack 1.010 / def 0.979 | Burnley attack 1.164 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Burnley (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Bristol City xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Burnley xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bristol City vs Burnley kick off?
Bristol City vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Ashton Gate.
What was the final score in Bristol City vs Burnley?
Bristol City 1 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Bristol City vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Ashton Gate.
What competition is Bristol City vs Burnley part of?
Bristol City vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bristol City vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Bristol City a 27% chance of winning, Burnley a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bristol City vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bristol City and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Bristol City vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol City and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Bristol City 0W | Draws 0 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Bristol City and Burnley in?
Bristol City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Burnley (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bristol City's attack at 1.01x the league average against Burnley's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.16x) against Bristol City's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 90/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
27%
3.71
30%
3.30
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Bristol City xG
Total xG
2.21
1.26
Burnley xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
8%
13.15
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.8 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bristol City vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bristol City and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Bristol City and 1.26 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bristol City vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bristol City come into this having played 82 games, going 26W 21D 35L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.59 PPG from 82 outings (34W 28D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Bristol City against 1.59 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bristol City's home form reads 17W 12D 12L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.41 points per game from 41 outings (14W 16D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Bristol City are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.41 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bristol City
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bristol City and Burnley in coming into this match?
Bristol City have gone 26W 21D 35L in their last 82 games (1.21 PPG), while Burnley have gone 34W 28D 20L in their last 82 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bristol City at home or Burnley away?
Bristol City's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bristol City at home: 1.54 PPG; Burnley away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Bristol City or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bristol City have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Burnley in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Burnley have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bristol City have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bristol City
0
Draws
4
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol City and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Bristol City have won 0, Burnley have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bristol City and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Burnley 1-0 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Bristol City and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bristol City 66%, Burnley 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Bristol City) and 39% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bristol City home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bristol City play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Bristol City's games and 54% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bristol City vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Bristol City's recent games and 39% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bristol City and Burnley tend to score early?
Bristol City have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Burnley in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Bristol City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Bristol City 1-2 at Ashton Gate, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 0.95 xG and Burnley 1.26 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Burnley attack 1.16 / defence 0.76, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bristol City 27% | Draw 30% | Burnley 43%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 50%, Burnley 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bristol City's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.21 PPG, Burnley 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.