Bournemouth 2-1 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Stoke City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bournemouth and Stoke City meet at Vitality Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Bournemouth (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Stoke City have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stoke City's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Bournemouth. A 0.70 PPG lead over Stoke City (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bournemouth, 0 for Stoke City and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Bournemouth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bournemouth — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Stoke City — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 47% versus Stoke City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 53% | Stoke City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.37 xG and Stoke City 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.231 / defence 1.166 | Stoke City attack 0.916 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.069. Data: 30 Bournemouth games / 32 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 42% | Draw 27% | Stoke City 31%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Stoke City 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Bournemouth 50% | Stoke City 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 42% | Draw 27% | Stoke City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Bournemouth 1.37 / Stoke City 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.231 / def 1.166 | Stoke City attack 0.916 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Stoke City xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Stoke City kick off?
Bournemouth vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Stoke City?
Bournemouth 2 - 1 Stoke City.
Where is Bournemouth vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Stoke City part of?
Bournemouth vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 42% chance of winning, Stoke City a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bournemouth and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Stoke City?
Record (1 meetings): Bournemouth 1W | Draws 0 | Stoke City 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Stoke City in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Stoke City (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bournemouth's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Stoke City's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Stoke City's attack (0.92x) against Bournemouth's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 30/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.74
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.51
1.14
Stoke City xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.14 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 17W 7D 6L from 30 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Stoke City, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 12L across 30 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bournemouth by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stoke City heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 8W 3D 3L from 14 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stoke City's away record stands at 5W 3D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bournemouth are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.27 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 17W 7D 6L in their last 30 games (1.93 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Stoke City away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.93 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Stoke City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bournemouth
0
Draws
0
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Stoke City?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 2, Stoke City have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Bournemouth 2-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Stoke City?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 57%, Stoke City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Bournemouth and 43% for Stoke City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 50% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Bournemouth's matches and 43% of Stoke City's.
Do Bournemouth and Stoke City tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Stoke City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Stoke City 2-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.37 xG and Stoke City 1.14 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.23 / defence 1.17 against Stoke City attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 42% | Draw 27% | Stoke City 31%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 53%, Stoke City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Stoke City's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.