Bournemouth 2-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bournemouth host QPR at Vitality Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 14 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 3W 3D 0L from 6 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 0.83 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bournemouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bournemouth have posted 1W 2D 0L at Vitality Stadium — 1.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
QPR — All Games: 3W 3D 0L from 6 Championship fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, QPR have posted 2W 1D 0L from 3 away outings — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bournemouth 2.00 PPG, QPR 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bournemouth register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, QPR in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
QPR in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 50% versus QPR 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bournemouth 67% | QPR 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.83 xG and QPR 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.295 / defence 1.144 | QPR attack 1.314 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.230. Bournemouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. QPR have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Bournemouth games / 6 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 37% | Draw 24% | QPR 38%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | QPR 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.68 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 67% | QPR 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 37% | Draw 24% | QPR 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG Bournemouth 1.83 / QPR 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.295 / def 1.144 | QPR attack 1.314 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: QPR (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.85
QPR xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs QPR kick off?
Bournemouth vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 14 September 2021 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs QPR?
Bournemouth 2 - 1 QPR.
Where is Bournemouth vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs QPR part of?
Bournemouth vs QPR is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 37% chance of winning, QPR a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Bournemouth and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bournemouth and QPR in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-3D-0L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-0L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bournemouth's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
37%
2.67
24%
4.10
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.68
1.85
QPR xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
16%
6.36
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
6%
16.99
6%
16.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.85 for QPR, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 3W 3D 0L from 6 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bournemouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 0L across 6 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 2.00 PPG, QPR on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 2.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. QPR's attacking output running into Bournemouth's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 67%.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Early Season
QPR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and QPR in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 3W 3D 0L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while QPR have gone 3W 3D 0L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or QPR away?
QPR's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.67 PPG; QPR away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, QPR in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and QPR runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bournemouth
0
Draws
0
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and QPR?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 2, QPR have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2021, when QPR 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and QPR?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bournemouth at 67%, QPR at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Bournemouth and 100% for QPR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; QPR in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bournemouth's games and 67% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Bournemouth's matches and 100% of QPR's.
Do Bournemouth and QPR tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, QPR in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat QPR 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat QPR 2-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.83 xG and QPR 1.85 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. QPR landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.29 / defence 1.14 against QPR attack 1.31 / defence 1.33, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 37% | Draw 24% | QPR 38%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 67%, QPR 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 2.00 PPG, QPR 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.