Bournemouth 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 28 as Bournemouth welcome Hull City to Vitality Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bournemouth — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Hull City have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hull City's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Bournemouth's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bournemouth, 0 for Hull City and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Hull City in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 46% versus Hull City 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 54% | Hull City 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.58 xG and Hull City 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.332 / defence 1.085 | Hull City attack 0.595 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.182. Bournemouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Bournemouth games / 26 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 56% | Draw 26% | Hull City 18%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Hull City 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hull City (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 50% | Hull City 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 56% | Draw 26% | Hull City 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Bournemouth 1.58 / Hull City 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.332 / def 1.085 | Hull City attack 0.595 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Hull City xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Hull City kick off?
Bournemouth vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Hull City?
Bournemouth 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Bournemouth vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Hull City part of?
Bournemouth vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 56% chance of winning, Hull City a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bournemouth and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Hull City?
Record (1 meetings): Bournemouth 0W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Hull City in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Hull City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 1.33x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.83
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.34
0.76
Hull City xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
4%
27.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.76 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Hull City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth come into this having played 26 games, going 14W 7D 5L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.00 PPG from 26 outings (7W 5D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Hull City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bournemouth's home form reads 7W 3D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 0.67 points per game from 12 outings (2W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.85 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Hull City in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 14W 7D 5L in their last 26 games (1.88 PPG), while Hull City have gone 7W 5D 14L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Hull City away?
Bournemouth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 2.00 PPG; Hull City away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Hull City in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and Hull City runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bournemouth
1
Draws
1
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Hull City?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 0, Hull City have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Bournemouth 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 58%, Hull City 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 92% (Bournemouth) and 8% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hull City in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 17% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 92% of Bournemouth's recent games and 8% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Hull City tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hull City in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Bournemouth 0-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.58 xG and Hull City 0.76 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bournemouth fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.33 / defence 1.08 against Hull City attack 0.59 / defence 1.14, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 56% | Draw 26% | Hull City 18%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 54%, Hull City 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Hull City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.