Bolton vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 40%, yet in-form Bolton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bolton vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 29 as Bolton welcome Derby to Toughsheet Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Bolton have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bolton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bolton's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Toughsheet Community Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Championship matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bolton carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bolton register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Derby in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bolton, 2 for Derby and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bolton trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bolton 60% and Derby 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 51% | Derby 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.22 xG and Derby 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 0.810 / defence 1.169 | Derby attack 1.009 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.230. Data: 7 Bolton games / 53 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 29% | Draw 30% | Derby 40%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bolton (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 70% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 29% | Draw 30% | Derby 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Bolton 1.22 / Derby 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 0.810 / def 1.169 | Derby attack 1.009 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Derby (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Derby xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Derby kick off?
Bolton vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
Where is Bolton vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Derby part of?
Bolton vs Derby is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 29% chance of winning, Derby a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bolton and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Derby?
Record (4 meetings): Bolton 1W | Draws 1 | Derby 2W.
What form are Bolton and Derby in?
Bolton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Derby (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bolton's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
29%
3.40
30%
3.30
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.67
1.45
Derby xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Bolton and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Bolton and 1.45 for Derby, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 23W 18D 12L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bolton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby's form line: 21W 10D 22L from 53 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bolton on 1.64 PPG, Derby on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bolton have posted 2.08 PPG from 26 outings (16W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Bolton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 3D 12L from 26 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bolton are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.38 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bolton have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Derby in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Derby in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 23W 18D 12L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 10D 22L in their last 53 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Derby away?
Bolton's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 2.08 PPG; Derby away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bolton and Derby runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bolton's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bolton
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Bolton have won 1, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Derby 1-0 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 62%, Derby 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Bolton and 65% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bolton's games and 62% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bolton vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Bolton's matches and 65% of Derby's.
Do Bolton and Derby tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Derby in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.