Blackburn 1-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackburn at 47%, yet in-form QPR provide a compelling counter-argument — this Blackburn vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 35 as Blackburn welcome QPR to Ewood Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Blackburn — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Blackburn at Ewood Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ewood Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Blackburn are significantly better at Ewood Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
QPR away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour QPR — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Blackburn have won 0, QPR 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with QPR winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Blackburn in-play tendencies (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
QPR in-play tendencies (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 42% versus QPR 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 42% | QPR 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.57 xG and QPR 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 1.136 / defence 1.136 | QPR attack 0.943 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.076. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Blackburn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Blackburn games / 33 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 47% | Draw 25% | QPR 28%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | QPR 3.57. Blackburn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackburn are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form QPR (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Blackburn 20% | QPR 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 47% | Draw 25% | QPR 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Blackburn 1.57 / QPR 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 1.136 / def 1.136 | QPR attack 0.943 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.15
QPR xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs QPR kick off?
Blackburn vs QPR kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs QPR?
Blackburn 1 - 0 QPR.
Where is Blackburn vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs QPR part of?
Blackburn vs QPR is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 47% chance of winning, QPR a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Blackburn and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and QPR?
Record (1 meetings): Blackburn 0W | Draws 0 | QPR 1W.
What form are Blackburn and QPR in?
Blackburn (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. QPR (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Blackburn's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.97
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.72
1.15
QPR xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
6%
17.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Blackburn and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.15 for QPR, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn come into this having played 33 games, going 15W 9D 9L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.70 PPG from 33 outings (16W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.64 PPG, QPR on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Blackburn's home form reads 9W 3D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (7W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.48 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and QPR in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 15W 9D 9L in their last 33 games (1.64 PPG), while QPR have gone 16W 8D 9L in their last 33 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or QPR away?
Blackburn's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 2.00 PPG; QPR away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Blackburn or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, QPR in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Blackburn and QPR runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Blackburn won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting QPR specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Blackburn
0
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 6, QPR have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when QPR 1-3 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and QPR?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 40%, QPR 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Blackburn and 73% for QPR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Blackburn's games and 73% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Blackburn vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Blackburn's matches and 73% of QPR's.
Do Blackburn and QPR tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, QPR in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Blackburn edge out QPR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat QPR 1-0 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.57 xG and QPR 1.15 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. QPR landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 1.14 / defence 1.14 against QPR attack 0.94 / defence 1.29, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 47% | Draw 25% | QPR 28%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 42%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.64 PPG, QPR 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.