Blackburn 0-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Blackburn vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 38 as Blackburn welcome Burnley to Ewood Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 25 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Blackburn's home record at Ewood Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ewood Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Blackburn are significantly better at Ewood Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Burnley — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Blackburn have won 0, Burnley 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 0–3 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Blackburn in-play tendencies (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Burnley in-play tendencies (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 38% versus Burnley 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 42% | Burnley 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 0.79 xG and Burnley 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.795 / defence 0.814 | Burnley attack 1.183 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.104. Blackburn's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 89 Blackburn games / 43 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 26% | Draw 34% | Burnley 40%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Burnley 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 30% | Burnley 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 26% | Draw 34% | Burnley 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Blackburn 0.79 / Burnley 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.795 / def 0.814 | Burnley attack 1.183 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Burnley (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Burnley xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Burnley kick off?
Blackburn vs Burnley kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Burnley?
Blackburn 0 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Blackburn vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Burnley part of?
Blackburn vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 26% chance of winning, Burnley a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Blackburn and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Blackburn 0W | Draws 0 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Blackburn and Burnley in?
Blackburn (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Burnley (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Blackburn's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 89/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
26%
3.89
34%
2.95
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Blackburn xG
Total xG
1.85
1.06
Burnley xG
3.89
26%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 16.7 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.06 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn's recent record stands at 35W 16D 30L from 81 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 33W 28D 20L across 81 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.49 PPG, Burnley on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Blackburn have managed 23W 7D 10L from 40 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Blackburn are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Burnley's away record stands at 13W 16D 11L across 40 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.42 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 81 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Burnley in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 35W 16D 30L in their last 81 games (1.49 PPG), while Burnley have gone 33W 28D 20L in their last 81 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Burnley away?
Blackburn's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.90 PPG; Burnley away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Burnley in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Blackburn and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Burnley won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Blackburn
1
Draws
3
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 0, Burnley have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2025, when Blackburn 0-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 35%, Burnley 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Blackburn) and 40% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Blackburn have failed to score in 28% of games; Burnley in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Blackburn's recent matches and 55% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackburn vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Blackburn's recent games and 40% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Burnley tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Burnley in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Blackburn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 0.79 xG and Burnley 1.06 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.80 / defence 0.81 against Burnley attack 1.18 / defence 0.80, drawn from 89/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 26% | Draw 34% | Burnley 40%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 42%, Burnley 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.49 PPG, Burnley 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.