Blackburn 0-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackburn vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 26 as Blackburn welcome Burnley to Ewood Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 January 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn's home record at Ewood Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ewood Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Championship matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Blackburn at 2.00 PPG versus Burnley's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Blackburn's 10% and Burnley's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Blackburn have won 0, Burnley 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Blackburn in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Burnley in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 48% versus Burnley 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 49% | Burnley 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 0.66 xG and Burnley 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.885 / defence 0.960 | Burnley attack 0.998 / defence 0.523. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.012. Burnley's defence strength of 0.523 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 70 Blackburn games / 25 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 23% | Draw 37% | Burnley 41%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 4.35 | Draw 2.70 | Burnley 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Blackburn's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 10% | Burnley 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 23% | Draw 37% | Burnley 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Blackburn 0.66 / Burnley 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.885 / def 0.960 | Burnley attack 0.998 / def 0.523 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Burnley (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Burnley xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Burnley kick off?
Blackburn vs Burnley kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Burnley?
Blackburn 0 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Blackburn vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Burnley part of?
Blackburn vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 23% chance of winning, Burnley a 41% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Blackburn and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Blackburn 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 2W.
What form are Blackburn and Burnley in?
Blackburn (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Burnley (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Blackburn's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.66. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.5%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
23%
4.38
37%
2.73
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Blackburn xG
Total xG
1.62
0.97
Burnley xG
4.38
23%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.23
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.7 | 19.1 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.3%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Blackburn and 0.97 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn's recent record stands at 22W 16D 25L from 63 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 26L across 63 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.30 PPG, Burnley on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Blackburn have managed 11W 9D 11L from 31 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 10W 8D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.13 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Burnley in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 22W 16D 25L in their last 63 games (1.30 PPG), while Burnley have gone 18W 19D 26L in their last 63 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Burnley away?
Blackburn's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.35 PPG; Burnley away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Burnley in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Blackburn and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Burnley won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Blackburn
1
Draws
3
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 0, Burnley have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2025, when Blackburn 0-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 52%, Burnley 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Blackburn) and 45% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Blackburn have failed to score in 29% of games; Burnley in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Blackburn's recent matches and 48% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackburn vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Blackburn's recent games and 45% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Burnley tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Burnley in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Blackburn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 0.66 xG and Burnley 0.97 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Burnley attack 1.00 / defence 0.52, drawn from 70/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 23% | Draw 37% | Burnley 41%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 49%, Burnley 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.30 PPG, Burnley 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.