Birmingham 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Birmingham at 37%, yet in-form Burnley provide a compelling counter-argument — this Birmingham vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St Andrew's Stadium plays host to Birmingham versus Burnley in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Wednesday 19 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Birmingham have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Birmingham's home record at St Andrew's Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burnley have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Burnley are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Birmingham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Burnley in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Birmingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 48% versus Burnley 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 50% | Burnley 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.11 xG and Burnley 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 0.937 / defence 0.905 | Burnley attack 1.050 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.092. Data: 60 Birmingham games / 14 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 37% | Draw 30% | Burnley 33%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Burnley 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Birmingham as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Burnley (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Birmingham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Birmingham 60% | Burnley 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: St Andrew's Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 37% | Draw 30% | Burnley 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Birmingham 1.11 / Burnley 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 0.937 / def 0.905 | Burnley attack 1.050 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Burnley xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs Burnley kick off?
Birmingham vs Burnley kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at St Andrew's Stadium.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Burnley?
Birmingham 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Birmingham vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at St Andrew's Stadium.
What competition is Birmingham vs Burnley part of?
Birmingham vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 37% chance of winning, Burnley a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Birmingham and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Birmingham and Burnley in?
Birmingham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Burnley (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Birmingham's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.05x) against Birmingham's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 60/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.38
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Birmingham xG
Total xG
2.14
1.04
Burnley xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.04 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Birmingham come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 16D 23L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.15 PPG from 52 outings (13W 21D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Birmingham against 1.15 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Birmingham's home form reads 8W 7D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.04 points per game from 25 outings (5W 11D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Birmingham are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.12 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and Burnley in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 13W 16D 23L in their last 52 games (1.06 PPG), while Burnley have gone 13W 21D 18L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Burnley away?
Birmingham's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.24 PPG; Burnley away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Birmingham
1
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Burnley?
From 2 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 0, Burnley have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Burnley 3-0 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 52%, Burnley 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Birmingham) and 32% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Birmingham have failed to score in 28% of games; Burnley in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Birmingham's recent matches and 56% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Birmingham vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Birmingham's recent games and 32% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Burnley tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Burnley in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Birmingham and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham and Burnley finished level at 1-1 at St Andrew's Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.11 xG and Burnley 1.04 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Burnley attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 37% | Draw 30% | Burnley 33%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 50%, Burnley 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Birmingham 1.06 PPG, Burnley 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.