Zlin 2-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zlin host Slovan Liberec at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 15 February 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zlin have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadion Letná — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slovan Liberec — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 3W 2D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.22 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Slovan Liberec's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Zlin's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slovan Liberec in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zlin, 0 for Slovan Liberec and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Zlin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 58% versus Slovan Liberec 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 63% | Slovan Liberec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.40 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.964 / defence 1.328 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.827 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.298. Data: 20 Zlin games / 19 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 37% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 38%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Slovan Liberec 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 60% | Slovan Liberec 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 37% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Zlin 1.40 / Slovan Liberec 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.964 / def 1.328 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.827 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Slovan Liberec xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Zlin vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:30 on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Zlin 2 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Zlin vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Zlin vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 37% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Zlin and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovan Liberec?
Record (1 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 0W.
What form are Zlin and Slovan Liberec in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.96x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
37%
2.71
25%
3.98
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.83
1.43
Slovan Liberec xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Zlin and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Zlin and 1.43 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin's recent record stands at 5W 4D 10L from 19 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 9L across 19 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.00 PPG, Slovan Liberec on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 3W 2D 4L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 0.89 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 7W 3D 9L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Zlin's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.22 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zlin's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Zlin
1
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovan Liberec?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 4, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Slovan Liberec?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 67%, Slovan Liberec at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Zlin and 56% for Slovan Liberec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zlin's games and 67% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Zlin's matches and 56% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Zlin and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Slovan Liberec 2-0 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.40 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.43 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.96 / defence 1.33 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 37% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 38%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Zlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 63%, Slovan Liberec 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.00 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.