Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sigma Olomouc (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zlin face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letna: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sigma Olomouc — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Zlin have won 2, Sigma Olomouc 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 5–0 with Zlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 53% versus Sigma Olomouc 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 53% | Sigma Olomouc 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 0.99 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.719 / defence 1.219 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.051 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.183. Zlin's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Zlin games / 41 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 24% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 49%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Sigma Olomouc 2.04. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Zlin 50% | Sigma Olomouc 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 24% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Zlin 0.99 / Sigma Olomouc 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.719 / def 1.219 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.051 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Sigma Olomouc xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stadion Letna.
Where is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 24% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zlin and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (8 meetings): Zlin 2W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 4W.
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in?
Zlin (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.72x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
24%
4.20
28%
3.63
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.50
1.52
Sigma Olomouc xG
4.20
24%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
5%
19.13
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Zlin and 1.52 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 10W 9D 26L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 21W 9D 15L from 45 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sigma Olomouc are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (7W 3D 13L).
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 9W 4D 10L from 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.40 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 10W 9D 26L in their last 45 games (0.87 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.04 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2025, when Zlin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Zlin
2
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 52%, Sigma Olomouc 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Zlin and 61% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin have failed to score in 30% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Zlin's games and 65% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Zlin's matches and 61% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Zlin and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.