Zlin 1-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees Bohemians 1905 travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Letná, Zlin have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zlin 0.90 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Zlin, 3 for Bohemians 1905 and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 63% versus Bohemians 1905 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 57% | Bohemians 1905 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.61 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.967 / defence 1.108 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.983 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 Zlin games / 60 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 32%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | Bohemians 1905 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Zlin 1.61 / Bohemians 1905 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.967 / def 1.108 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.983 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Zlin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Bohemians 1905 xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Zlin 1 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 41% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Zlin and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Record (6 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.97x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.80
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.02
1.41
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
6%
15.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Zlin and 1.41 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin come into this having played 68 games, going 13W 25D 30L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.29 PPG from 68 outings (23W 19D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.94 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zlin's home form reads 11W 11D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.24 points per game from 33 outings (11W 8D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.29 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 13W 25D 30L in their last 68 games (0.94 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 23W 19D 26L in their last 68 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Zlin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.33 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
2
Draws
7
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 73%, Bohemians 1905 at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Zlin) and 58% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Zlin's games and 61% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Zlin's matches and 58% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Zlin and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Zlin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Zlin 1-2 at Stadion Letná, Relegation Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.61 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.41 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 41% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 32%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 57%, Bohemians 1905 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.94 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.