Zbrojovka Brno 2-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zbrojovka Brno host Teplice at ADAX INVEST Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 outings — a 1.86 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.86 goals per game, with 1.71 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zbrojovka Brno have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zbrojovka Brno's home record at ADAX INVEST Arena: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.86 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at ADAX INVEST Arena this season.
Teplice — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Zbrojovka Brno have the edge — a 0.56 PPG advantage (1.86 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zbrojovka Brno 71% and Teplice 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zbrojovka Brno 86% | Teplice 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 2.00 xG and Teplice 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.952 / defence 1.351 | Teplice attack 0.904 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.363. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing Zbrojovka Brno's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Zbrojovka Brno games / 38 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 44% | Draw 25% | Teplice 31%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Teplice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zbrojovka Brno 75% | Teplice 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: ADAX INVEST Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 44% | Draw 25% | Teplice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 2.00 / Teplice 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.952 / def 1.351 | Teplice attack 0.904 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Teplice xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Zbrojovka Brno 2 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 44% chance of winning, Teplice a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Teplice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zbrojovka Brno's attack at 0.95x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
44%
2.27
25%
4.00
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
3.66
1.67
Teplice xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
14%
7.35
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
4%
23.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.67 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zbrojovka Brno carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Teplice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zbrojovka Brno's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.14 scored and 2.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Teplice have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Teplice away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 1.00 PPG; Teplice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Zbrojovka Brno
3
Draws
0
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice?
From 3 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, Teplice have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2023, when Teplice 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zbrojovka Brno at 67%, Teplice at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Zbrojovka Brno and 100% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zbrojovka Brno have failed to score in 33% of games; Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 67% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 100% of Teplice's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Teplice in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at ADAX INVEST Arena, Regular Season - 9, as Zbrojovka Brno and Teplice drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 2.00 xG and Teplice 1.67 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.95 / defence 1.35 against Teplice attack 0.90 / defence 1.41, drawn from 7/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 44% | Draw 25% | Teplice 31%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 86%, Teplice 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zbrojovka Brno arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.