Teplice 1-2 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Slovan Liberec are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Slovan Liberec 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 58% | Slovan Liberec 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.95 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.621 / defence 1.105 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.816 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.269. Teplice's attack strength of 0.621 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Teplice games / 12 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 30% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 40%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Slovan Liberec 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Slovan Liberec 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 30% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Teplice 0.95 / Slovan Liberec 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.621 / def 1.105 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.816 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Slovan Liberec xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Teplice 1 - 2 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 30% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Teplice and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Slovan Liberec in?
Teplice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.82x) against Teplice's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
30%
3.32
30%
3.35
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.09
1.14
Slovan Liberec xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.1 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Teplice and 1.14 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice come into this having played 12 games, going 1W 2D 9L for 0.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Teplice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Teplice's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 1W 2D 9L in their last 12 games (0.42 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Slovan Liberec's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 0.80 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 3-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Teplice
3
Draws
1
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 6, Slovan Liberec have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Slovan Liberec 0-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 40%, Slovan Liberec 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Teplice) and 40% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Teplice's recent matches and 60% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Teplice's recent games and 40% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Teplice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Teplice 1-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.95 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.14 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.62 / defence 1.10 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 30% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 40%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 58%, Slovan Liberec 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 0.92 PPG against 0.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.