Teplice 1-3 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 30 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 3.00 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (3.00 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Teplice have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Slavia Praha in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | Slavia Praha attack 0.851 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 0.884 / away 1.013. Data: 1 Teplice games / 1 Slavia Praha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Teplice 31% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 37%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Slavia Praha 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 31% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Teplice 0.88 / Slavia Praha 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | Slavia Praha attack 0.851 / def 1.010 | league avg home 0.884 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Slavia Praha xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 30 July 2021 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Teplice 1 - 3 Slavia Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slavia Praha part of?
Teplice vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 31% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Teplice and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Slavia Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Slavia Praha (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (0.85x) against Teplice's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
31%
3.24
32%
3.12
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.87
0.99
Slavia Praha xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 15.3 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Teplice and 0.99 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Slavia Praha in 0%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Teplice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 5 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Teplice
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2025, when Teplice 1-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Teplice's recent matches and 0% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Teplice's recent games and 0% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Teplice 1-3 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 0.99 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Slavia Praha attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 31% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 37%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 0%, Slavia Praha 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Teplice scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.