Teplice 1-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Teplice face Slavia Praha.

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Full Analysis

AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 19). Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Teplice's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Slavia Praha's record over their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Slavia Praha have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 1.30 PPG clear of Teplice over their recent games (2.80 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Slavia Praha, who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Teplice 1–2 Slavia Praha — a Slavia Praha win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Slavia Praha have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 54% versus Slavia Praha 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 48% | Slavia Praha 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.036 / defence 1.234 | Slavia Praha attack 1.344 / defence 0.569. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.199. Slavia Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.569, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Teplice's projected output down. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.344, which lifts their away xG to 1.99. Teplice's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slavia Praha's projected output up. Data: built from Teplice's last 48 games and Slavia Praha's last 48.

Result probabilities: Teplice 15% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 62%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 6.88 | Draw 4.24 | Slavia Praha 1.62. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Slavia Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 80% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 40% (last 10 away games).

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