Teplice 1-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Teplice at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Teplice are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 44% versus Hradec Králové 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 52% | Hradec Králové 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.97 xG and Hradec Králové 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.740 / defence 1.042 | Hradec Králové attack 0.732 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.141. Teplice's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Teplice games / 25 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 37% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 31%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Hradec Králové 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 37% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Teplice 0.97 / Hradec Králové 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.740 / def 1.042 | Hradec Králové attack 0.732 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Teplice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Hradec Králové xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Teplice 1 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Teplice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 37% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Teplice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in?
Teplice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.74x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.09
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.84
0.87
Hradec Králové xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 13.7 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Teplice and 0.87 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 6W 3D 16L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 7W 10D 8L from 25 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (4W 1D 7L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 4D 6L from 12 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.20 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 6W 3D 16L in their last 25 games (0.84 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Teplice's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.08 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Hradec Králové won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Teplice
1
Draws
7
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 42%, Hradec Králové 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Teplice) and 42% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 33% of games; Hradec Králové in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Teplice's recent matches and 50% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Teplice's recent games and 42% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Teplice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Teplice 1-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.97 xG and Hradec Králové 0.87 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.74 / defence 1.04 against Hradec Králové attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 37% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 31%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 52%, Hradec Králové 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.