Teplice 0-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FK Jablonec make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Teplice against 0.80 for FK Jablonec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 44% versus FK Jablonec 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 56% | FK Jablonec 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.10 xG and FK Jablonec 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.753 / defence 1.292 | FK Jablonec attack 0.640 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. Teplice's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Teplice games / 30 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 40% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 29%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | FK Jablonec 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | FK Jablonec 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 40% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Teplice 1.10 / FK Jablonec 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.753 / def 1.292 | FK Jablonec attack 0.640 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Teplice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.90
FK Jablonec xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Teplice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Teplice 0 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Teplice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs FK Jablonec part of?
Teplice vs FK Jablonec is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 40% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Teplice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and FK Jablonec in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.64x) against Teplice's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
40%
2.53
31%
3.19
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.99
0.90
FK Jablonec xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Teplice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Teplice and 0.90 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 8W 4D 20L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
FK Jablonec's form line: 5W 14D 13L from 32 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Teplice against 0.91 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (5W 2D 8L).
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 6D 8L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.75 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 8W 4D 20L in their last 32 games (0.88 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 5W 14D 13L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or FK Jablonec away?
Teplice's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.13 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FK Jablonec have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-1 on 26 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Teplice
1
Draws
7
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 47%, FK Jablonec 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Teplice) and 47% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 33% of games; FK Jablonec in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Teplice's recent matches and 47% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Teplice's recent games and 47% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.10 xG and FK Jablonec 0.90 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.75 / defence 1.29 against FK Jablonec attack 0.64 / defence 1.27, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 40% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 29%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 56%, FK Jablonec 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.88 PPG, FK Jablonec 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.