Teplice 1-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Teplice at 44%, yet in-form FK Jablonec provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FK Jablonec make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 0W 0D 3L across 3 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FK Jablonec are 1.33 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.33 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Teplice 33% | FK Jablonec 33%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Teplice 67% | FK Jablonec 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.60 xG and FK Jablonec 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.959 / defence 1.321 | FK Jablonec attack 0.671 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.466. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Teplice games / 3 FK Jablonec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 31%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | FK Jablonec 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (1.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 33% | FK Jablonec 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Teplice 1.60 / FK Jablonec 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.959 / def 1.321 | FK Jablonec attack 0.671 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Teplice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FK Jablonec xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Teplice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Teplice 1 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Teplice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs FK Jablonec part of?
Teplice vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 44% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Teplice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and FK Jablonec in?
Teplice (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.67x) against Teplice's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
44%
2.25
25%
4.07
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.90
1.30
FK Jablonec xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Teplice and 1.30 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 3L record — L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FK Jablonec are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Teplice or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FK Jablonec have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-1 on 26 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Teplice
1
Draws
7
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Teplice) and 33% (FK Jablonec) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Teplice and 67% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 33%; Teplice have failed to score in 67% of games; FK Jablonec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Teplice's recent matches and 33% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Teplice's matches and 67% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Teplice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out FK Jablonec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat FK Jablonec 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.60 xG and FK Jablonec 1.30 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 1.32 against FK Jablonec attack 0.67 / defence 1.38, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 44% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 31%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 67%, FK Jablonec 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Teplice conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.