Teplice 0-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Teplice and Bohemians 1905 meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Bohemians 1905 arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Teplice 0W, Bohemians 1905 0W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 46% versus Bohemians 1905 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 59% | Bohemians 1905 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.33 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.014 / defence 1.071 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.092 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.330. Data: 32 Teplice games / 32 Bohemians 1905 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Teplice 33% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 43%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 1905 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Bohemians 1905 50%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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