Sparta Praha 4-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
epet ARENA plays host to Sparta Praha versus Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Tuesday 3 December 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Sparta Praha (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at epet ARENA this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Sparta Praha against 1.50 for Karviná. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Karviná in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Sparta Praha are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 63% versus Karviná 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 63% | Karviná 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.88 xG and Karviná 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.030 / defence 1.207 | Karviná attack 1.037 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.162. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Sparta Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Sparta Praha games / 46 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 46% | Draw 26% | Karviná 28%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Karviná 3.57. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 80% | Karviná 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 46% | Draw 26% | Karviná 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Sparta Praha 1.88 / Karviná 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.030 / def 1.207 | Karviná attack 1.037 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Karviná xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Karviná kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Karviná kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 3 December 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Sparta Praha 4 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Karviná part of?
Sparta Praha vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 46% chance of winning, Karviná a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sparta Praha and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Karviná?
Record (4 meetings): Sparta Praha 4W | Draws 0 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Karviná in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Karviná (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.03x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.04x) against Sparta Praha's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.79
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.33
1.45
Karviná xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
4%
23.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.45 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 35W 10D 6L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 15W 12D 24L from 51 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.28 PPG from 25 outings (17W 6D 2L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 6W 5D 14L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.04 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Karviná in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 35W 10D 6L in their last 51 games (2.25 PPG), while Karviná have gone 15W 12D 24L in their last 51 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Karviná away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.28 PPG; Karviná away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Karviná in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
0
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 7, Karviná have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Karviná?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 64%, Karviná 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Sparta Praha and 60% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Karviná in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sparta Praha's games and 56% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sparta Praha's matches and 60% of Karviná's.
Do Sparta Praha and Karviná tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Karviná in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Karviná 4-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.88 xG and Karviná 1.45 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against Karviná attack 1.04 / defence 1.23, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 46% | Draw 26% | Karviná 28%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 63%, Karviná 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.