Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to epet ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at epet ARENA, Sparta Praha have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at epet ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Sparta Praha) versus 1.70 (Hradec Králové). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Praha: 8 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Hradec Králové, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 56% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 63% | Hradec Králové 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.66 xG and Hradec Králové 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.306 / defence 1.069 | Hradec Králové attack 0.671 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Sparta Praha games / 35 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 54% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 20%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 5.00. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Praha 60% | Hradec Králové 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 54% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Sparta Praha 1.66 / Hradec Králové 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.306 / def 1.069 | Hradec Králové attack 0.671 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Hradec Králové xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at epet ARENA.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 54% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Record (10 meetings): Sparta Praha 8W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.31x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.93
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.58
0.92
Hradec Králové xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
4%
25.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.92 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Praha come into this having played 41 games, going 25W 7D 9L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.61 PPG from 41 outings (19W 9D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Praha on 2.00 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sparta Praha's home form reads 15W 4D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.37 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 25W 7D 9L in their last 41 games (2.00 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 19W 9D 13L in their last 41 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.33 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
0
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 71%, Hradec Králové 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Sparta Praha) and 43% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sparta Praha's games and 52% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sparta Praha's matches and 43% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.