Sparta Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to epet ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at epet ARENA, Sparta Praha have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at epet ARENA.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Praha: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Hradec Králové, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 53% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 59% | Hradec Králové 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.61 xG and Hradec Králové 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.163 / defence 0.701 | Hradec Králové attack 0.741 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.187. Sparta Praha's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Sparta Praha games / 54 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 61% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 13%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Hradec Králové 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 40% | Hradec Králové 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 61% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 38% | xG Sparta Praha 1.61 / Hradec Králové 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.163 / def 0.701 | Hradec Králové attack 0.741 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Hradec Králové xG
38%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha 2 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 61% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Record (4 meetings): Sparta Praha 3W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.16x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
61%
1.64
26%
3.86
13%
7.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.23
0.62
Hradec Králové xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
7.56
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
33%
3.05
3%
37.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.62 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Praha come into this having played 58 games, going 42W 12D 4L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.24 PPG from 58 outings (19W 15D 24L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sparta Praha's home form reads 23W 5D 1L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (8W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.12 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 42W 12D 4L in their last 58 games (2.38 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 19W 15D 24L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.55 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
1
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Hradec Králové have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 55%, Hradec Králové 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Sparta Praha) and 45% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 48% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Sparta Praha's matches and 45% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Hradec Králové 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 2-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.61 xG and Hradec Králové 0.62 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.16 / defence 0.70 against Hradec Králové attack 0.74 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 61% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 13%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 59%, Hradec Králové 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.