Sparta Praha 2-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
epet ARENA plays host to Sparta Praha versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 28 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Praha have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 6W 2D 2L at epet ARENA — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 1.00 PPG lead over Bohemians 1905 (2.30 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Sparta Praha, who have won 7 of the last 8 meetings against Bohemians 1905 — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 67% versus Bohemians 1905 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 59% | Bohemians 1905 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.48 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.407 / defence 1.000 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.908 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.150. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.407 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Sparta Praha games / 42 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 43% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 1905 23%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Bohemians 1905 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 80% | Bohemians 1905 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 43% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 1905 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Sparta Praha 1.48 / Bohemians 1905 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.407 / def 1.000 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.908 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 28 October 2025 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha 2 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 43% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Record (8 meetings): Sparta Praha 7W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.41x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.91x) against Sparta Praha's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
43%
2.30
34%
2.98
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.52
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.30
43%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
5%
19.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.04 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha come into this having played 46 games, going 26W 9D 11L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.22 PPG from 46 outings (14W 14D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sparta Praha's home form reads 14W 4D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.02 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 26W 9D 11L in their last 46 games (1.89 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 14D 18L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.09 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
1
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 73%, Bohemians 1905 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sparta Praha) and 36% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 36% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 36% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Bohemians 1905 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Bohemians 1905 2-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.48 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.41 / defence 1.00 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 43% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 1905 23%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 59%, Bohemians 1905 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.