Sparta Praha 2-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sparta Praha face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sparta Praha welcome Baník Ostrava to epet ARENA in Czech Liga (Championship Round - 3). Kick-off is Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Sparta Praha have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Baník Ostrava stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Baník Ostrava away from home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Praha: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Baník Ostrava, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended Sparta Praha 4–3 Baník Ostrava — a Sparta Praha win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sparta Praha and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 57% versus Baník Ostrava 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 60% | Baník Ostrava 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.10 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.284 / defence 0.916 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.245 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack rating of 1.284 — their 2.10 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Baník Ostrava have an above-average attack rating of 1.245, which lifts their away xG to 1.47. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 60 games and Baník Ostrava's last 60.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 51% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 26%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.95 | Draw 4.39 | Baník Ostrava 3.84. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Baník Ostrava's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 50% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 51% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Sparta Praha 2.10 / Baník Ostrava 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.284 / def 0.916 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.245 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Baník Ostrava xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Sparta Praha 2 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (Championship Round - 3) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 51% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.28x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sparta Praha's last 60 games and Baník Ostrava's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.39
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.56
1.47
Baník Ostrava xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
3%
31.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.47 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sparta Praha come into this having played 67 games, going 48W 14D 5L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.30 PPG from 67 outings (24W 15D 28L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sparta Praha's home form reads 25W 7D 1L across their last 33 home games, a 2.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.27 points per game from their last 33 away games (11W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.51 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Sparta Praha (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Praha
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 48W 14D 5L in their last 67 games (2.36 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 24W 15D 28L in their last 67 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.48 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Mar 2023, when Sparta Praha won Baník Ostrava 0-3 Sparta Praha.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
2
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Praha have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Baník Ostrava 0-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 58%, Baník Ostrava 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sparta Praha) and 54% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sparta Praha's games and 61% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sparta Praha's matches and 54% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 67% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Baník Ostrava 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Baník Ostrava 2-1 at epet ARENA, Championship Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.10 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.47 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.28 / defence 0.92 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.25 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 51% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 26%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 60%, Baník Ostrava 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.