Slovan Liberec 0-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Stadion u Nisy to face Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion u Nisy this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at Stadion u Nisy than their overall form suggests.
Teplice have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.60 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 46% versus Teplice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 38% | Teplice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.34 xG and Teplice 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.960 / defence 0.938 | Teplice attack 0.883 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.153. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Slovan Liberec games / 26 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 46% | Draw 28% | Teplice 27%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 3.70. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 40% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 46% | Draw 28% | Teplice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.34 / Teplice 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.960 / def 0.938 | Teplice attack 0.883 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Teplice xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 46% chance of winning, Teplice a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Teplice in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.88x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.61
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.30
0.95
Teplice xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.95 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 6D 11L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 0.81 PPG from 26 outings (6W 3D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Teplice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 6W 2D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.62 points per game from 13 outings (2W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.00 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Teplice have gone 6W 3D 17L in their last 26 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Teplice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.54 PPG; Teplice away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 3-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
6
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 1, Teplice have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Slovan Liberec 0-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 31%, Teplice 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Slovan Liberec) and 62% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 46% of games; Teplice in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 46% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 62% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Teplice tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Teplice in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slovan Liberec 0-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.34 xG and Teplice 0.95 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Teplice attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 46% | Draw 28% | Teplice 27%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 38%, Teplice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.