Slovan Liberec 1-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slavia Praha make the trip to Stadion u Nisy to face Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec at Stadion u Nisy this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Slavia Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 1.20 PPG clear of Slovan Liberec in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.50 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 50% versus Slavia Praha 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 42% | Slavia Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.11 xG and Slavia Praha 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.970 / defence 1.063 | Slavia Praha attack 1.446 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.151. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Slovan Liberec games / 24 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 24% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 53%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Slavia Praha 1.89. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 40% | Slavia Praha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 24% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.11 / Slavia Praha 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.970 / def 1.063 | Slavia Praha attack 1.446 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Slavia Praha xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 24% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.97x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.45x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
24%
4.18
23%
4.27
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.88
1.77
Slavia Praha xG
4.18
24%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
4%
24.52
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.77 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 8W 6D 10L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha's form line: 19W 3D 2L from 24 games, 2.50 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovan Liberec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 8W 3D 1L from 12 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.50 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 19W 3D 2L in their last 24 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.42 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Slovan Liberec
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Slovan Liberec 1-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 33%, Slavia Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovan Liberec) and 58% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 42%; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 50% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 58% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovan Liberec defy the odds to beat Slavia Praha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Slavia Praha 1-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.11 xG and Slavia Praha 1.77 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slavia Praha landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Slavia Praha attack 1.45 / defence 1.00, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 24% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 53%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Slovan Liberec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 42%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Slovan Liberec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.