Slovan Liberec 1-2 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (37%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Slovan Liberec face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slavia Praha make the trip to Stadion U Nisy to face Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga (Championship Group - 1). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Slovan Liberec at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Slavia Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 1.30 PPG clear of Slovan Liberec over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Slavia Praha have the stronger record — 6 wins to Slovan Liberec's 0, with 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Feb 2026, ended Slovan Liberec 0–1 Slavia Praha — a Slavia Praha win.
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 45% versus Slavia Praha 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 44% | Slavia Praha 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 0.98 xG and Slavia Praha 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.853 / defence 0.722 | Slavia Praha attack 1.291 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.291, which lifts their away xG to 1.12. Slovan Liberec have a tight defence (rating 0.722), which is pulling Slavia Praha's projected output down. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 60 games and Slavia Praha's last 60.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 30% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 37%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 3.28 | Draw 3.11 | Slavia Praha 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 20% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Group - 1 | Venue: Stadion U Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 30% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Slovan Liberec 0.98 / Slavia Praha 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.853 / def 0.722 | Slavia Praha attack 1.291 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Slavia Praha xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Stadion U Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 2 Slavia Praha.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion U Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (Championship Group - 1) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 30% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.85x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.29x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 60 games and Slavia Praha's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
30%
3.28
32%
3.11
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.10
1.12
Slavia Praha xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.7 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.12 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 19D 19L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Slavia Praha's form line: 48W 10D 4L from 62 games, 2.48 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.01 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovan Liberec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 30 home games (14W 9D 7L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 19W 7D 4L from their last 30 away games — 2.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.18 scored and 0.66 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Slavia Praha in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Slavia Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 24W 19D 19L in their last 62 games (1.47 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 48W 10D 4L in their last 62 (2.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.70 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 3-0 Slovan Liberec on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 0W 3D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Slovan Liberec 1-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 33%, Slavia Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovan Liberec) and 47% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 43%; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 50% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 47% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 73% of Slavia Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Slovan Liberec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Slovan Liberec 1-2 at Stadion U Nisy, Championship Group - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 0.98 xG and Slavia Praha 1.12 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.85 / defence 0.72 against Slavia Praha attack 1.29 / defence 0.83, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 30% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 37%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 44%, Slavia Praha 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.