Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slovan Liberec face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc meet at Stadion U Nisy in Czech Liga (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Slovan Liberec have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sigma Olomouc's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 10 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Slovan Liberec, 4 for Sigma Olomouc and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2026, ended Slovan Liberec 0–1 Sigma Olomouc — a Sigma Olomouc win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 42% versus Sigma Olomouc 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 38% | Sigma Olomouc 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.67 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.907 / defence 0.752 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.856 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.292. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 1.346 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slovan Liberec's projected output up. Slovan Liberec have a tight defence (rating 0.752), which is pulling Sigma Olomouc's projected output down. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 43 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 44.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 55% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 16%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.83 | Draw 3.44 | Sigma Olomouc 6.18. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (55%) — a 26pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 30% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion U Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 55% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.67 / Sigma Olomouc 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.907 / def 0.752 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.856 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sigma Olomouc xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadion U Nisy.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion U Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 55% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.91x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.86x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 43 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
55%
1.83
29%
3.44
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.50
0.83
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
3%
32.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.83 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 20W 12D 16L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 22W 10D 16L from 48 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.58 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 8W 5D 10L from their last 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.40 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 22W 10D 16L in their last 48 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.57 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won Sigma Olomouc 1-4 Slovan Liberec on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 30%, Sigma Olomouc 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Slovan Liberec) and 65% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 35% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 70% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 65% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 87% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.