Slovan Liberec 1-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Slovan Liberec welcome Dukla Praha to Stadion u Nisy. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion u Nisy this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Slovan Liberec have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Slovan Liberec have won 1, Dukla Praha 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 4–1 with Slovan Liberec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Slovan Liberec in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 46% versus Dukla Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 50% | Dukla Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.90 xG and Dukla Praha 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.114 / defence 0.884 | Dukla Praha attack 0.559 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.218. Data: 53 Slovan Liberec games / 22 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 68% | Draw 21% | Dukla Praha 11%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Dukla Praha 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 30% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 68% | Draw 21% | Dukla Praha 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 39% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.90 / Dukla Praha 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.114 / def 0.884 | Dukla Praha attack 0.559 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Dukla Praha xG
39%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 68% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha?
Record (1 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Dukla Praha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (1.11) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.75
11%
9.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.50
0.60
Dukla Praha xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
9.27
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
37%
2.68
2%
61.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 9.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.60 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec's recent record stands at 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 14L across 22 games — 0.64 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovan Liberec by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dukla Praha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slovan Liberec have managed 4W 4D 3L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 0W 4D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.73 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 3W 5D 14L in their last 22 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Dukla Praha away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.45 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Slovan Liberec won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
2
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Dukla Praha 1-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 36%, Dukla Praha 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Slovan Liberec) and 46% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 36% of games; Dukla Praha in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 36% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 46% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha finished level at 1-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.90 xG and Dukla Praha 0.60 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Dukla Praha attack 0.56 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 68% | Draw 21% | Dukla Praha 11%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 50%, Dukla Praha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.