Slovan Liberec 1-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Slovan Liberec welcome Dukla Praha to Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 2 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dukla Praha stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Slovan Liberec have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 0 for Dukla Praha and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Slovan Liberec 4–1 Dukla Praha — a Slovan Liberec win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Slovan Liberec in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 46% versus Dukla Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 50% | Dukla Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.90 xG and Dukla Praha 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.114 / defence 0.884 | Dukla Praha attack 0.559 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.218. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.559 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 53 games and Dukla Praha's last 22.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 68% | Draw 21% | Dukla Praha 11%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.47 | Draw 4.75 | Dukla Praha 9.27. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (68%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 30% (last 10 home games) | Dukla Praha 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 68% | Draw 21% | Dukla Praha 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.90 / Dukla Praha 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.114 / def 0.884 | Dukla Praha attack 0.559 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Dukla Praha xG
39%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 68% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (1.11) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 53 games and Dukla Praha's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.75
11%
9.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.50
0.60
Dukla Praha xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
9.27
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
37%
2.68
2%
61.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 9.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.60 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec's recent record stands at 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 14L across 22 games — 0.64 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovan Liberec by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dukla Praha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slovan Liberec have managed 4W 4D 3L from their last 11 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 0W 4D 7L across their last 11 away games, a 0.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.73 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Dukla Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 3W 5D 14L in their last 22 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Dukla Praha away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.45 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 6 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Sep 2024, when Slovan Liberec won Dukla Praha 1-4 Slovan Liberec.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
2
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 December 2025: Dukla Praha 1-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 36%, Dukla Praha 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Slovan Liberec) and 46% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 36% of games; Dukla Praha in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Dukla Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 36% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 46% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 64% of Dukla Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha finished level at 1-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.90 xG and Dukla Praha 0.60 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Dukla Praha attack 0.56 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 68% | Draw 21% | Dukla Praha 11%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 50%, Dukla Praha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.