Slovácko 4-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Sparta Praha at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's home record at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty: 6W 0D 0L from 6 Czech Liga appearances (3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.83 PPG). They are averaging 3.17 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Slovácko) versus 2.30 (Sparta Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 57% versus Sparta Praha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 64% | Sparta Praha 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.59 xG and Sparta Praha 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.958 / defence 0.929 | Sparta Praha attack 1.409 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.286. Sparta Praha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.409 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Slovácko games / 14 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 37% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 40%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Sparta Praha 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 33% | Sparta Praha 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 37% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Slovácko 1.59 / Sparta Praha 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.958 / def 0.929 | Sparta Praha attack 1.409 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Sparta Praha xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Slovácko vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Sparta Praha?
Slovácko 4 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is Slovácko vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Sparta Praha part of?
Slovácko vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 37% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Slovácko and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Sparta Praha in?
Slovácko (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.96) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
37%
2.74
23%
4.33
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Slovácko xG
Total xG
3.27
1.68
Sparta Praha xG
2.74
37%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
7%
14.74
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.68 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 14 games, going 10W 2D 2L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.36 PPG from 14 outings (10W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 2.29 PPG, Sparta Praha on 2.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 6W 0D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.29 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.57 scored and 1.07 conceded. Sparta Praha's attacking output running into Slovácko's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Sparta Praha in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 10W 2D 2L in their last 14 games (2.29 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 10W 3D 1L in their last 14 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Sparta Praha away?
Slovácko's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 3.00 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Sparta Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Sparta Praha won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Slovácko
4
Draws
6
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sparta Praha 5-2 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 33%, Sparta Praha 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Slovácko and 83% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Slovácko's games and 83% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovácko vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Slovácko's matches and 83% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Slovácko and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovácko run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sparta Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Sparta Praha 4-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.59 xG and Sparta Praha 1.68 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Praha landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Sparta Praha attack 1.41 / defence 1.26, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 37% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 40%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 64%, Sparta Praha 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 2.29 PPG, Sparta Praha 2.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.