Slovácko 1-2 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Slovan Liberec travel to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to take on Slovácko. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Slovácko, 0 for Slovan Liberec and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Slovácko winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 58% versus Slovan Liberec 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 69% | Slovan Liberec 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.52 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.992 / defence 0.763 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.935 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.354. Slovácko's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Slovácko games / 34 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 49% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 23%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Slovan Liberec 4.35. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 40% | Slovan Liberec 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 49% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Slovácko 1.52 / Slovan Liberec 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.992 / def 0.763 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.935 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Slovan Liberec xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec?
Slovácko 1 - 2 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 49% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Slovácko and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Slovan Liberec?
Record (2 meetings): Slovácko 2W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 0W.
What form are Slovácko and Slovan Liberec in?
Slovácko (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Slovácko's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.59
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.49
0.97
Slovan Liberec xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.97 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovácko come into this having played 36 games, going 21W 7D 8L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (12W 8D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Slovácko's home form reads 14W 1D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.94 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 0.94 points per game from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.06 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 21W 7D 8L in their last 36 games (1.94 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Slovácko's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.53 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Slovan Liberec have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Slovan Liberec won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
1
Draws
6
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Slovan Liberec 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 41%, Slovan Liberec 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Slovácko) and 47% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Slovácko's recent matches and 53% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Slovácko's recent games and 47% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovan Liberec defy the odds to beat Slovácko 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Slovácko 1-2 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.52 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.97 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slovan Liberec outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.99 / defence 0.76 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 49% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 23%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Slovan Liberec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 69%, Slovan Liberec 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Slovan Liberec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.