Slovácko vs Hradec Králové – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 37%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Slovácko vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty plays host to Slovácko versus Hradec Králové in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovácko have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Slovácko have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Hradec Králové arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Slovácko 3W, Hradec Králové 5W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Hradec Králové winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 49% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 54% | Hradec Králové 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.20 xG and Hradec Králové 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.914 / defence 1.110 | Hradec Králové attack 0.762 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 36 Slovácko games / 34 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 37% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 35%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Hradec Králové 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovácko if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 70% | Hradec Králové 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 37% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Slovácko 1.20 / Hradec Králové 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.914 / def 1.110 | Hradec Králové attack 0.762 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hradec Králové xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
Where is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 37% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Slovácko and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
Record (10 meetings): Slovácko 3W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 5W.
What form are Slovácko and Hradec Králové in?
Slovácko (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.91) and Hradec Králové's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.76x) against Slovácko's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 36/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.59
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.37
1.17
Hradec Králové xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.17 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovácko's recent record stands at 9W 9D 21L from 39 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 12L across 39 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hradec Králové by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slovácko heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 6W 4D 8L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 6W 4D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovácko are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.38 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 9W 9D 21L in their last 39 games (0.92 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 18W 9D 12L in their last 39 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovácko's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.22 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hradec Králové go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won 1-5 on 9 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
2
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Slovácko 1-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 56%, Hradec Králové 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Slovácko) and 44% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Slovácko's games and 56% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Slovácko's matches and 44% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Slovácko and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.