Slovácko 0-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slovácko (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Slovácko face Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty plays host to Slovácko versus Hradec Králové in Czech Liga (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Slovácko have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Slovácko have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Hradec Králové's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hradec Králové's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Slovácko's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hradec Králové's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Slovácko, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Hradec Králové — Hradec Králové have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Nov 2022, ended Slovácko 2–1 Hradec Králové — a Slovácko win.
The head-to-head data gives Slovácko an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 40% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 40% | Hradec Králové 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.62 xG and Hradec Králové 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.908 / defence 0.815 | Hradec Králové attack 0.785 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.176. Hradec Králové's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Slovácko's last 43 games and Hradec Králové's last 43.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 58% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 17%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.72 | Draw 4.05 | Hradec Králové 5.80. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slovácko 40% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 58% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Slovácko 1.62 / Hradec Králové 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.908 / def 0.815 | Hradec Králové attack 0.785 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Hradec Králové xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovácko vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Slovácko vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Slovácko 0 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 58% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Slovácko and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Slovácko vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.91) and Hradec Králové's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.79x) against Slovácko's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from Slovácko's last 43 games and Hradec Králové's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.05
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.37
0.75
Hradec Králové xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
3%
29.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovácko vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.75 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovácko's recent record stands at 19W 13D 15L from 47 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 22L across 47 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Slovácko against 1.26 for Hradec Králové. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 12W 7D 5L from their last 24 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across their last 24 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovácko are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.15 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
Slovácko (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovácko
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Slovácko vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Slovácko and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 19W 13D 15L in their last 47 games (1.49 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 17W 8D 22L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovácko's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.79 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hradec Králové have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won Slovácko 1-5 Hradec Králové on 9 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
2
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovácko vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovácko have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Slovácko 1-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 42%, Hradec Králové 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovácko) and 50% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovácko vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovácko and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Slovácko's recent matches and 54% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovácko and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovácko's recent games and 50% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Slovácko's recent matches and 67% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovácko's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 14, as Slovácko and Hradec Králové drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.62 xG and Hradec Králové 0.75 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.91 / defence 0.81 against Hradec Králové attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 58% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 17%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 40%, Hradec Králové 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.49 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.