Slovácko 1-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees České Budějovice travel to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to take on Slovácko. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have recorded 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slovácko 3.00 PPG, České Budějovice 3.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Slovácko's 0% and České Budějovice's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.15 xG and České Budějovice 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.970 / defence 1.150 | České Budějovice attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.431. Data: 1 Slovácko games / 1 České Budějovice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 31% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 43%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | České Budějovice 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on České Budějovice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 31% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Slovácko 1.15 / České Budějovice 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.970 / def 1.150 | České Budějovice attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.40
České Budějovice xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs České Budějovice kick off?
Slovácko vs České Budějovice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Slovácko 1 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Slovácko vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs České Budějovice part of?
Slovácko vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 31% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Slovácko and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and České Budějovice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.97x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
31%
3.23
26%
3.78
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.55
1.40
České Budějovice xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
8%
13.07
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Slovácko and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.40 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 3.00 PPG, České Budějovice on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Slovácko have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; České Budějovice in 0%.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; České Budějovice in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
České Budějovice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Slovácko or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and České Budějovice runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2023, when Slovácko won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Slovácko
3
Draws
1
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
From 9 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, České Budějovice have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Slovácko 0-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Slovácko's recent matches and 0% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Slovácko's recent games and 0% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovácko defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat České Budějovice 1-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.15 xG and České Budějovice 1.40 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. České Budějovice landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against České Budějovice attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 31% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 43%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 0%, České Budějovice 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 3.00 PPG, České Budějovice 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.