Slovácko 5-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Bohemians 1905 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slovácko at 1.50 PPG versus Bohemians 1905's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Slovácko's 30% rate and Bohemians 1905's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Slovácko, 2 for Bohemians 1905 and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Slovácko winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 41% versus Bohemians 1905 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 39% | Bohemians 1905 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.29 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.941 / defence 0.707 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.817 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.189. Slovácko's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Slovácko games / 46 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 51% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 20%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 5.00. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 30% | Bohemians 1905 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 51% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG Slovácko 1.29 / Bohemians 1905 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.941 / def 0.707 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.817 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Bohemians 1905 xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Slovácko 5 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 51% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Record (5 meetings): Slovácko 2W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovácko (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.94x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.43
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Slovácko xG
Total xG
1.97
0.69
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.69 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Slovácko have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 21W 15D 15L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 21W 10D 20L from 51 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.53 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 1.81 PPG from 26 outings (13W 8D 5L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 3D 11L from 26 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.35 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 21W 15D 15L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 21W 10D 20L in their last 51 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slovácko's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.81 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
3
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Slovácko 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 38%, Bohemians 1905 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Slovácko) and 54% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slovácko's recent matches and 46% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Slovácko's recent games and 54% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovácko run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Bohemians 1905 5-2 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.29 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.69 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.94 / defence 0.71 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 51% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 20%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 39%, Bohemians 1905 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.53 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.