Slovácko 2-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slovácko face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty plays host to Slovácko versus Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga (matchday 16). Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Slovácko have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Slovácko have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Baník Ostrava (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Baník Ostrava's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Slovácko, 2.00 for Baník Ostrava — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Slovácko, 1 for Baník Ostrava and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Slovácko 0–0 Baník Ostrava — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 42% versus Baník Ostrava 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 42% | Baník Ostrava 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Slovácko surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Baník Ostrava have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.11 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.887 / defence 0.787 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.191 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.178. Slovácko have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling Baník Ostrava's projected output down. Data: built from Slovácko's last 45 games and Baník Ostrava's last 45.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 36% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 35%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.80 | Draw 3.45 | Baník Ostrava 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovácko if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slovácko 40% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 36% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Slovácko 1.11 / Baník Ostrava 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.887 / def 0.787 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.191 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Baník Ostrava xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Slovácko 2 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 36% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slovácko and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.89) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.19x) against Slovácko's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Slovácko's last 45 games and Baník Ostrava's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.45
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.22
1.10
Baník Ostrava xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.10 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slovácko's recent record stands at 20W 15D 15L from 50 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 20L across 50 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Slovácko against 1.32 for Baník Ostrava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 11W 8D 5L from their last 24 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 6W 9D 9L across their last 24 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovácko are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.50 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Slovácko (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovácko
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 20W 15D 15L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 18W 12D 20L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Slovácko's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.71 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won Baník Ostrava 6-0 Slovácko on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 3W 2D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
3
Draws
4
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovácko have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Slovácko 2-2 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 42%, Baník Ostrava 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovácko) and 50% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovácko and Baník Ostrava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Slovácko's recent matches and 67% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovácko's recent games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Slovácko's recent matches and 62% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Baník Ostrava 2-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.11 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.10 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.89 / defence 0.79 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.19 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 36% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 35%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, Baník Ostrava 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.50 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.