Slavia Praha 3-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 85% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Sinobo Stadium to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha at Sinobo Stadium this season: 7W 0D 0L from 7 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sinobo Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Sinobo Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 0W 1D 7L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Slavia Praha. A 2.30 PPG lead over Teplice (2.50 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slavia Praha lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2021, ended 3–1 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 47% versus Teplice 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Slavia Praha 67% | Teplice 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 3.36 xG and Teplice 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.474 / defence 0.747 | Teplice attack 0.813 / defence 1.628. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.316. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.474 — their λ of 3.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.628 — this is suppressing Slavia Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 15 Slavia Praha games / 15 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 85% | Draw 10% | Teplice 5%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.18 | Draw 10.00 | Teplice 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (85%) — a 80pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 4.16. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.16 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 85% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 43% | Teplice 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 85% | Draw 10% | Teplice 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 53% | xG Slavia Praha 3.36 / Teplice 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.474 / def 0.747 | Teplice attack 0.813 / def 1.628 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (85%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.36
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Teplice xG
53%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Slavia Praha 3 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Teplice part of?
Slavia Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 85% chance of winning, Teplice a 5% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Slavia Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
Record (1 meetings): Slavia Praha 1W | Draws 0 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Teplice in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Teplice (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.36. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.81x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 4-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
85%
1.17
10%
10.46
5%
18.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
4 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.36
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
4.16
0.80
Teplice xG
1.17
85%
Home win
10.46
10%
Draw
18.90
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
3%
28.85
Win to Nil
38%
2.61
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 3.36 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.80 for Teplice, a combined total of 4.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 85%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.53 PPG on a 12W 2D 1L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 1W 2D 12L from 15 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 2.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 3.00 PPG from 7 outings (7W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.53 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Teplice have gone 0W 1D 6L from 7 away games — 0.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.87 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice in 60%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 12W 2D 1L in their last 15 games (2.53 PPG), while Teplice have gone 1W 2D 12L in their last 15 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Teplice away?
Slavia Praha's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 3.00 PPG; Teplice away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Teplice in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 5 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
1
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Teplice have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2025, when Teplice 1-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 86% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 43%, Teplice 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Slavia Praha and 86% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Teplice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Slavia Praha's games and 71% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slavia Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Slavia Praha's matches and 86% of Teplice's.
Do Slavia Praha and Teplice tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Teplice in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Teplice 3-0 at Sinobo Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 3.36 xG and Teplice 0.80 xG, a combined 4.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Teplice landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.47 / defence 0.75 against Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 1.63, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 85% | Draw 10% | Teplice 5%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 85%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 67%, Teplice 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Teplice's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.