Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Zbrojovka Brno to Andruv stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andruv stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 1.60 (Zbrojovka Brno). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Zbrojovka Brno and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 3–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Zbrojovka Brno trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 60% versus Zbrojovka Brno 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 70% | Zbrojovka Brno 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.72 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.105 / defence 1.001 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.770 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Data: 41 Sigma Olomouc games / 10 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 57% | Draw 24% | Zbrojovka Brno 19%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Zbrojovka Brno 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Zbrojovka Brno 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 57% | Draw 24% | Zbrojovka Brno 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.72 / Zbrojovka Brno 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.105 / def 1.001 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.770 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Zbrojovka Brno xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Andruv stadion.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 57% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno?
Record (2 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 0 | Zbrojovka Brno 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.10x the league average against Zbrojovka Brno's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.13
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.62
0.90
Zbrojovka Brno xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
3%
29.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.90 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 6W 2D 2L from 10 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zbrojovka Brno, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 4L across 10 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 2.00 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zbrojovka Brno's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zbrojovka Brno's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 2.25 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
0
Draws
1
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 2 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when Zbrojovka Brno 2-3 Sigma Olomouc.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sigma Olomouc 25% BTTS, Zbrojovka Brno 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Sigma Olomouc) and 25% (Zbrojovka Brno).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Zbrojovka Brno in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Zbrojovka Brno?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 25% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 25% of Zbrojovka Brno's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.