Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Andrův stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 5W 4D 1L at Andrův stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sigma Olomouc. A 0.70 PPG lead over Teplice (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Teplice in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Teplice and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Teplice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 48% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 48% | Teplice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 2.43 xG and Teplice 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.124 / defence 0.932 | Teplice attack 0.987 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.269. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Sigma Olomouc games / 57 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 65% | Draw 19% | Teplice 16%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Teplice 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 65% | Draw 19% | Teplice 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 63% | xG Sigma Olomouc 2.43 / Teplice 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.124 / def 0.932 | Teplice attack 0.987 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Teplice xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 65% chance of winning, Teplice a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Record (3 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 0W | Draws 2 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Teplice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.12x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.99x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
65%
1.55
19%
5.25
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.59
1.17
Teplice xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
9%
11.32
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
1%
69.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.17 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 21W 21D 19L from 61 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 33L across 61 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 0.98 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 11W 12D 6L from 29 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 5W 5D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.16 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 21D 19L in their last 61 games (1.38 PPG), while Teplice have gone 16W 12D 33L in their last 61 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Teplice away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.55 PPG; Teplice away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Teplice in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 52%, Teplice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Sigma Olomouc and 76% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Teplice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 59% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 76% of Teplice's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Teplice tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Teplice in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 2.43 xG and Teplice 1.17 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Teplice outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Teplice attack 0.99 / defence 1.35, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 65% | Draw 19% | Teplice 16%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Teplice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 48%, Teplice 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.38 PPG, Teplice 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.