Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Andrův stadion plays host to Sigma Olomouc versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final. Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 5D 1L at Andrův stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andrův stadion.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 41% versus Mlada Boleslav 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 41% | Mlada Boleslav 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.24 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.881 / defence 0.896 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.983 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Sigma Olomouc games / 30 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 42% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 28%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Mlada Boleslav 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Mlada Boleslav 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 42% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.24 / Mlada Boleslav 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.881 / def 0.896 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.983 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mlada Boleslav xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 2 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav is a Middle Play-offs - Final fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 42% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.98x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.40
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.19
0.95
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.95 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 11W 10D 11L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 13W 5D 14L from 32 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.38 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (7W 7D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Sigma Olomouc are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 5W 3D 8L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.53 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 11W 10D 11L in their last 32 games (1.34 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 13W 5D 14L in their last 32 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.75 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 44%, Mlada Boleslav 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sigma Olomouc) and 56% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 62% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 56% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Middle Play-offs - Final, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.24 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.95 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 42% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 28%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 41%, Mlada Boleslav 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.34 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.